Why Indian exports will grow in 2025 and beyond, Trumping challenges with inherent strengths
As 2025 begins, global trade faces mounting challenges. After decades of rapid expansion, the growth of international commerce has slowed dramatically. Between 2003 and 2008, total global trade in goods and services doubled from $10 trillion to $20 trillion, but reaching $30 trillion has taken more than 13 years, with little significant movement since. The world export-to-GDP ratio, which first hit 30% in 2008, hovered below that level for much of the following years, briefly touching it again in 2022 before slipping once more—signalling a long-term plateau. Fig: Exports (goods+services) to GDP ratio, %. Data: Worldbank Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is preparing tariffs against nations he claims misuse subsidies and high tariffs—China is the prime target, with allies like Canada and Mexico also on notice. His branding of India as a "tariff king" raises the spectre of potential actions against Indian trade. Against this backdrop, India must navigate a world wh...