Peak Trade and Make in India
For the past few decades, upto the financial crisis, international trade grew at a rate of around 7% a year, which was almost double the rate of growth of world GDP. Post financial crisis, the trade growth was sluggish, and for the last couple of years it has grown at around 3 percent, lesser than the pace of world GDP growth. In terms of trade to GDP share too, the world trade rose from around 40% of world GDP in the early 90s to peak at around 61% in 2011. It has now fallen to around 60%. This had lead to the theory that the world trade has peaked. Paul Krugman doesn't agree. He says that trade outgrowing GDP is not a natural law and we should neither be amazed nor disturbed if it stops happening. Some other economists chime in saying that it might just be a cyclical phenomenon and not a structural shift. However, there is good amount of evidence that the international trade growth, as we know it, has indeed peaked. And the reasons are structural and not just cyclical. That...